基于水热平衡模型的青海湖水位变化趋势预测lowast;.pdfVIP

J. Lake Sci.(湖泊科学), 2009, 21(4): 587-593 . E-mail: jlakes@ ©2009 by Journal of Lake Sciences 基于水热平衡模型的青海湖水位变化趋势预测∗ 1 1 1 1,2 董春雨 , 王乃昂 , 李卓仑 , 杨 萍 (1: 兰州大学资源环境学院, 兰州 730000) (2: 青海师范大学生命与地理科学学院, 西宁 810008) 摘 要: 近几十年来, 随着气候干暖化, 以青海湖为代表的我国内陆湖泊水位持续下降, 生态环境问题日益突出, 备受世人关 注. 运用改进的水热平衡模型预测了2050 年以前青海湖逐年的湖面蒸发量, 并运用多元线性回归的方法估算出流域未来径流 量的变化, 最终通过水量平衡的方式对2050 年以前青海湖水位的变化趋势进行了定量预测. 预测表明未来几十年内, 青海湖 水位会经历先相对稳定再继续下降的过程, 2020 年以前青海湖水位会相对稳定在3192.7m, 之后会继续下降, 到2050 年约下 降到3191.22m, 总体上2010-2050 年青海湖水位下降趋势将有所缓和. 关键词: 青海湖; 水位变化; 水热平衡模型; 预测 Forecast of lake level in Lake Qinghai based on energy-water balance model 1 1 1 1,2 DONG Chunyu , WANG Naiang , LI Zhuolun YANG Ping (1: College of Earth and Environmental Science, Lanzhou University , Gansu 730000, P.R.China) (2: College of Life and Geography Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, P.R.China) Abstract : Water level in Lake Qinghai, a representative inland lake in northwest China, is declining rapidly under the influence of climatic change. At the same time, the environmental problem becomes more serious. It has arrested many people’s attentions. In this paper, the stream flows for period until the year of 2050 are estimated by multiply linear regression and the trends of the water level are forecasted based on an improved model of hydrologic and energy balance. The prediction indicates that the water level would keep steadily about 3192.7m before the year of 2020, and then continues to decline. It would drop to 3191.22m in 2050. Changes of the water level in Lake Qinghai would become alleviative in the next several decades of 2010-2050. Keywords: Lake Qinghai; water level change; model of hydrologic and energy balance; forecast 内陆湖泊是我国西北地区水资源的重要组成部分. 近些年来, 随着气候干暖化, 以及人类不合理的 开