一个基于自信过剩和有偏见的自我归因的证券市场理论------外文翻译.docVIP

一个基于自信过剩和有偏见的自我归因的证券市场理论 leifer and Subrahmanyam (1998) propose a theory of security markets based on investor over confidence (about the precision of private information) and biased self-attribution (which causes changes in investors confidence as a function of their investment outcomes) which leads to market under- and overreactions. Leifer和Subrahmanyam (1998)基于投资者（对私有信息的精确性）自信过剩和有偏见的自我归因（根据投资者投资结果引起投资者信心改变）提出一个证券市场的理论，会导致市场不足或过度反应。 Camerer and Lovallo (1999) found experimentally that over confidence and optimism lead to excessive business entry. Wermers (1999) studied herding by mutual fund managers and he found the highest levels in trades of small stocks and in trading by growth-oriented funds. Thaler (1999) summarizes the literature on mental accounting and concludes that mental accounting influences choice, that is, it matters. Gigerenzer, Todd and the ABC Research Group (1999) publish Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart, a book about fast and frugal heuristics. Odean (1999) demonstrated that overall trading volume in equity markets is excessive, and one possible explanation is over confidence. He also found evidence of the disposition effect which leads to profitable stocks being sold too soon and losing stocks being held for too long. Hong and Stein (1999) model a market populated by two groups of boundedly-rational agents: `newswatchers and `momentum traders which leads to underrea ction at short horizons and overreaction at long horizons. Nofsinger and Sias (1999) found that institutional investors positive-feedback trade more than individual investors and institutional herding impacts prices more than herding by individual investors. Camerer 和 Lovallo (1999)从实验中发现，过剩的信心和乐观会导致过多的业务进入。Wermers (1999)通过共同基金管理人研究羊群效应，他通过增长型基金发现小型股交易和贸易的最高水平。Thaler (1999)总结了关于心理账户的著作，并认为心理账户会影响选择，也就是说，心理账户很重要。Gigerenzer, Todd和ABC Research Group(1999)出版了《简捷启发式让我们更精明》，这是一本关于快速节俭启发式的书。Odean (1999)证明了股权市场的总交易额过多，一个可能的解释是过度自信。他还发现了引起过快卖出盈利股票而长期持有亏损股票的处置效应的证据。Hong 和 Stein(1999)