可靠度理论在基于性能的重力坝设计中的应用初探.docVIP

 可靠度理论在基于性能的重力坝设计中的 应用初探 季昀，李同春** 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 （河海大学水利水电学院，南京 210098） 摘要：介绍了基于性能的结构设计方法与可靠度理论的发展历程。给出了基于性能的重力坝 设计方法的基本方程，并将坝顶位移变形确立为目标性能指标。进行了可靠度理论在基于性 能的重力坝设计方法中应用的初步探索，对现有的常用的可靠度理论中的各类计算方法进行 了比较分析，其中着重讨论了动力可靠度的研究并结合基于性能方法的思想提出了动力可靠 度计算的新思路，将 Push-over 分析方法引入到重力坝动力可靠度的计算中。结合重力坝的 结构特点与基于性能的思想，选择基于随机有限元的响应面法与基于随机有限元的人工神经 网络方法作为有效的重力坝可靠度计算方法。在上述分析基础上，提出了可靠度理论在基于 性能的重力坝设计中的应用模式与求解思路。讨论了常用数值软件 MATLAB 在重力坝可靠度 分析中的应用并进行了使用 MATLAB 优化工具箱进行几何法与 Monte-Carlo 方法计算一般可 靠度的实例演算。 关键词：水工结构；基于性能；重力坝；可靠度；随机有限元；响应面；MATLAB 中图分类号：TV Research on Reliability Theory in The Application of Gravity Dam Design Based on PBSD JI Yun, LI Tongchun (College of Water Conservansy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098) Abstract: Performace-Based Seismic Design(PBSD) is supposed to be the main design method in future.The development of PBSD and reliability theory is given.The basic equations based on PBSD are put forward and the displacement and deformation of the crest of gravity dam is determined to measure the target perfomance levels.The preliminary exploration of the application of reliability theory in PBSD is conducted.The existing theory of the common types of calculation methods of reliability are discussed,in which dynamical reliability is focused and a new way to compute the dynamical reliability is suggested and Push-over method is included in it.Considering the characteristics of gravity dam and PBSD,response surface method and artificial neural networks based on stochastic finite element are selected to be main approaches to solve reliability problems.Based on analysis implemented above, a new way to apply the reliability theory in gravity dam design on basis of PBSD is raised.Analysis of reliability with common numerical software MATLAB are conducted in detail and several examples are shown,such as JC method,Monte-Carlo method,etc. Key words: hydraulic structure;Performance-Based;Gravity Dam;Reliability;Stochastic Finite Element;Response Surface;MATLAB