基于双对数模型的广州市居民用水需求弹性分析.docVIP

 基于双对数模型的广州市居民用水需求 弹性分析 毕志化，郭海华** 5 10 （暨南大学经济学院，广州 510632） 摘要：1980~2010 年，广州市的居民生活用水价格经过 7 次上调，由最初的 0.12 元/立方米 上调到现在的 1.32 元/立方米，平均每年上涨 8.32%。根据双对数模型对城市居民用水需求 价格弹性和收入弹性进行的回归分析结果表明：生活用水的价格弹性是-0.763，收入弹性是 0.664，价格弹性的绝对值大于收入弹性的绝对值，当水价涨幅超过人均可支配收入涨幅时， 人均用水量会有显著下降，从而起到节水作用。同时，人均水费支出占可支配收入比重近 30 年始终小于 1.5%，开始引起居民的节水意识，水价的杠杆作用发挥出一定的功效，水价 还有一定的提高空间。 关键词：双对数模型；城市居民生活用水；需求价格弹性；需求收入弹性 中图分类号：F290 15 Elastic Analysis on the Water Demand of Urban Residential of Guangzhou Based on Double Logarithmic Model Bi Zhihua, Guo Haihua (College of Economics, JiNan University, GuangZhou 510632) 20 25 30 35 40 Abstract: From 1980 to 2010, the domestic water price of residents in Guangzhou rised seven times and transferred from the initial 0.12 yuan/ cubic meter to 1.32 yuan/ cubic meter with an average annual rise of 8.32 percentage. The regression analysis results of the elasticity of water price and income in Guangzhou which was made with double logarithmic model showed that price elasticity was -0.763 and income elasticity was 0.664. The absolute value of price elasticity was greater than the absolute value of income elasticity. When the increase of water price was obviously more than that of the per capita disposable income, the average water consumption would be significantly decreased,and thus played a water-saving role. Then the proportion of per capita water expenses on disposable income was consistently less than 1.5 percentage in the past thirty years, which begun to attract residents awareness of water conservation.The pricing leverage of water price played a certain effect. There was still some improving room. Keywords: double logarithmic model; urban residential domestic water; demond price elasticity; demond income elasticity 0 引言 广州市位于广东省的中南部，珠江三角洲的北缘，包括 10 区 2 市，靠近珠江流域下游 入海口，总面积为 7434.4 平方公里。全市水域面积为 7.44 万公顷，占全市土地面积约 10% 。 全市集雨面积在 100 平方公里以上的河流共有 22 条，流经市区的河涌有 231 条，共 913 公 里；主要河流有珠江、东江、北江、增江、流溪河等。广州市水资源的主要特点是本地水资 源较少，本地平均水资源总量仅有 79.79 亿立方米，其中地表水为 78.81 亿立方米，地下水 14.8