毕业论文：服务贸易对浙江经济增长拉动作用的实证分析.doc

摘 要 国际金融危机使世界经济增长放慢,但全球产业升级、国际产业结构由制造业向服务业转移的总体趋势不会发生变化，服务贸易在我国经济发展中的重要性也日益凸显,与国民经济的增长息息相关。近年来服务贸易对浙江经济增长的拉动作用越来越突出,本文首先介绍了浙江服务贸易发展的现状及发展过程中所呈现的特点和问题，其次通过收集浙江省近年来服务贸易进出口和GDP的相关数据和资料,并采用计量经济学的模型着重分析了服务贸易对浙江经济增长的拉动作用，发现服务贸易进出口均会促进浙江经济的增长,并且服务进口对经济增长的拉动作用大于服务出口，同时服务进出口均是GDP增长的格兰杰原因，服务进出口额对经济增长的路径强弱依次为：人力资本效应、就业效应、技术效应、物质资本效应、制度效应。最后在尝试性地对这些结果作出解释的基础上，提出了大力发展服务贸易、促进浙江经济增长的建议。 关键词：服务贸易，经济增长，拉动作用，实证分析 ABSTRACT The international financial crisis makes the world economic growth to slow down, but the global industrial upgrading, the overall trend didnt change, that international industrial structure from manufacturing to services, importance of the service trade in the countrys economic development is increasingly prominent, and also the national economic growth is closely linked. In recent years the role of service trade in boosting economic growth is becoming more and more prominent in Zhejiang, First, this paper introduces the present situation of the development of trade in service in zhejiang and the characteristics of development process at present,second ,through collecting the related data and information of import and export trade in service and GDP of zhejiang province in recent years , establishing the econometric model, focusing on the analysis of the trade in service is role in boosting economic growth of zhejiang, found that import and export promoting economic growth of zhejiang, and the import in service is the role in boosting economic growth than export in service, Import and export in service impact on the way of the GDP growth,form strong to week is rank for human capital effect, employment effect, technological effect, physical capital effect, system effect. The last,on the basis of the article attempting to explain these results, put forward to the suggestions of strengthening the development of trade in service and promoting the economic growth of the zhejiang . KEY WORDS: trade in service, economic growth, pull function, empirical analyses 引 言 自上世纪60