Harman Gilbert Detachment Probability and Maximum Likelihood哈曼吉尔伯特支队概率和最大似然.pdf

Harman Gilbert Detachment Probability and Maximum Likelihood哈曼吉尔伯特支队概率和最大似然.pdf

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Detachment, Probability, and Maximum Likelihood Gilbert Harman Noûs, Vol. 1, No. 4. (Dec., 1967), pp. 401-411. Stable URL: /sici?sici=0029-4624291%3A4%3C401%3ADPAML%3E2.0.CO%3B2-S Noûs is currently published by Blackwell Publishing. Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTORs Terms and Conditions of Use, available at /about/terms.html. JSTORs Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at /journals/black.html. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is an independent not-for-profit organization dedicated to and preserving a digital archive of scholarly journals. For more information regarding JSTOR, please contact support@. Sat May 12 00:32:38 2007 Detachment, Probability, and Maximum Likelihood GILBERTHARMAN PRINCETON UNIVERSITY When can we detach probability quaMcations from our in- ductive conclusions? The following rule may seem plausible: If the probability of h on the total evidence is at least N-1/N, infer h. However, what has been called the lottery paradox shows that we cannot accept this rule if we also accept the usual principles of deductive logic. For it would a

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